Millions Leaving SAVE Could Still Owe $0 Per Month — But Most Haven’t Run The Numbers

More than 7 million student loan borrowers will be kicked out of the SAVE plan in the next few months, and for many, the anxiety is real: After nearly two years of patience, they’re bracing for a monthly bill they fear they can’t afford.

But we saw something interesting in the our comments on social networks – borrowers are amazed that they can still secure a $0 monthly payment on IBR.

That makes sense. If historical patterns hold, at least 3 million of these borrowers will still qualify for a $0 monthly payment under Income Based Repayment (IBR). They just haven’t crunched the numbers yet. Therefore borrowers should use a Student Loan Calculator and see what their expected payoffs would be.

On The Department of Education has begun notifying enrolled borrowers on July 1 that they have 90 days to choose a new repayment plan. Borrowers who do not move in time will be moved to a new plan automatically. That deadline has created a scramble among debtors who, in some cases, have not made a payment since March 2020.

Here’s what borrowers may be missing out on by still having a $0 monthly payment.

A $0 down payment has always been more common than borrowers think

Zero dollar monthly payments are not the invention of SAVINGS. They were a standard feature of the income-based repayment (IDR) for more than a decade, and they have always covered a large portion of enrollment.

Before the pandemic, about 8.2 million borrowers were enrolled in IDR plans, according to Federal Student Aid Data from the end of 2019. 2019 Center for American Progress analysis, quoted in the NPR investigationfound that nearly half of them (roughly 4 million borrowers) had a $0 payment scheduled. On Government Accountability Office reported the same pattern within the RETURN (predecessor to SAVE) where just over half of borrowers had to pay nothing due to low reported incomes.

SAVE increased that share. Because SAVE used 225% discretionary income formula (compared to 150% under older plans) at GAO found that nearly 60% of SAVE borrowers with scheduled payments (3.6 million of 6.2 million) owe $0 as of January 31, 2024. The Department of Education later announced that 4.6 million out of over 8 million borrowers who enrolled in SAVE had a monthly payment of $0.

Simply put: for the entire history of income repayment, approximately half of borrowers at any given time default on a monthly payment.

Data evaluation today

Here’s the math we used to estimate potential $0 monthly payments, using intentionally conservative assumptions.

Step 1: Total savings of borrowers. Roughly 7.7 million borrowers were enrolled in SAVE or SAVE opposition and must move to a new plan. The Department for Education said 1 million people had changed plans, but we will use the original total.

Step 2: How many savings borrowers had $0 payments. GAO data shows that 58% of SAVE borrowers had payments of $0 ($3.6 million ÷ 6.2 million) at the beginning of 2024.

Step 3: Adjust the 150% IBR threshold. IBR is not as generous as SAVE was. For a single borrower in 2026, the $0 limit drops from about $35,910 of adjusted gross income (225% of Poverty guideline of $15,960) to $23,940 (150%).

History also tells us what happens at that lower threshold: plans that use 150% (PAYMENT, PAYand IBR) made $0 payments for roughly half of pre-pandemic enrollees (about 4 million out of 8.2 million in 2019).

Step 4: Adjust the old income data. Most SAVE borrowers last verified income in 2023 or earlier, and wages have risen since then. Some borrowers who owed $0 back then will earn too much now. To be conservative, we assume the $0 share falls to 40-45% (below anything seen in the program’s history) rather than the 45-55% that supports the pre-pandemic record.

Step 5: Multiply. 7.7 million × 40% = 3.1 million. 7.7 million × 45% = 3.5 million.

The estimate: 3.1 to 3.5 million borrowers (let’s call it “at least 3 million”) will likely qualify for the $0 IBR payment. Even if the actual share of borrowers fell to 35%, a level without historical precedent, that would still be 2.7 million borrowers paying nothing every month.

Two caveats. This is an estimate, not an official Ministry of Education figure. ED has not released a $0 down payment eligibility projection for SAVE borrowers moving into IBR. And the assessment only applies to borrowers who actually choose IBR. Those who choose RAP or a standard plan there will always be a payoff above $0, regardless of income.

Why the plan you choose matters

The choices borrowers make over the next 90 days carry more weight than previous plan switches because the new Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP) (which opened on July 1, 2026) breaks with the IDR design years.

There is RAP no $0 down payment. Borrowers with adjusted gross income of $10,000 or less pay a monthly minimum of $10, and payments range from 1% to 10% of total AGI as income increases, with a monthly deduction of $50 per dependent.

RAP offers benefits older plans don’t have, including an interest subsidy that prevents balances from growing and a principal match of up to $50 per month. But for the lowest-income borrowers, RAP means paying something every month when it used to be $0.

In contrast, IBR maintained its payment of $0. Borrowers can also temporarily move to PAYE or ICR, but those plans sunset by July 1, 2028forcing a second switch later.

What this means for your family budget

For families preparing for a new bill, the practical advice is simple: do the math before you panic. College Investor’s student loan calculator and app can help.

A borrower earning $23,000 would pay $0 on the IBR, but about $38 per month on the RAP (2% of AGI). An individual borrower earning $30,000 gets land at roughly $50 per month on both plans. A married borrower with two children and $45,000 in household AGI would likely pay $0 on the IBR, but about $50 on the RAP after the $50 deduction per dependent.

The real answer varies based on income, family size, age of the loan, and how long the borrower has already been in repayment, especially for anyone seeking Public Service Loan Forgiveness or temporary loan forgivenesswhere $0 months count in full.

The worst outcome is to do nothing. Borrowers who miss the 90-day window will be placed in a plan they didn’t choose, and borrowers who simply stop paying face delinquencycredit damage and (with collections will restart soon) garnishment of salary and tax refund offset.

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