As Mortgage Rates Hit 10-Month Peak, Here’s What It Means for Home Buyers
If you’re hoping to get a bargain mortgage rate, this might not be your week.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose eight basis points to 6.47% in the week ended July 16, according to rates provided by Zillow’s NerdWallet. (The basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.) We calculate our weekly average using the daily APR recorded over the last five business days.
🤓 Kate at Rate: July 16, 2026
Will mortgage rates fall or rise next week?
While it’s impossible to predict exactly what mortgage rates will do, let’s take a look at the current landscape and what it could mean for mortgage buyers.
The case of falling prices (very unlikely)
Granted, this report draws on data from before the Iran ceasefire collapsed. But it’s the latest inflation data that the Federal Reserve is due at its July 28-29 meeting. Central bankers’ preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures report, will not be released until July 30.
Futures traders are currently predicting that central bankers will vote to leave the federal funds rate unchanged this month. If markets show increasing confidence in “no change,” mortgage rates may fall slightly.
The case of price increase (more likely)
If the price of oil rises, it will raise the fear of inflation among the creditors. Then we see lenders raising their rates to protect their income against the weakening purchasing power of the dollar.
Mortgage lenders adjust their rates before a Fed decision, not after, so the perception that central bankers might raise the federal funds rate could be enough to push mortgage rates up.
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Are you in one of the hottest housing markets?
According to the site, three of the top five hottest markets last month were in Connecticut: Hartford, Norwich-New London and Waterbury-Shelton. The other two: Erie, Pa. and Kenosha, Wis. Among homes in these markets, the median days on the market are between 29 and 32.
Within the top 20 markets listed, the lowest median list price was in Binghamton, NY, at $227,000. This means a monthly mortgage payment of around $1,877 at this week’s average 30-year rate of 6.47%, if the borrower makes a 10% payment.
The highest median listing price was in Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn., at $849,000. Here, a monthly mortgage payment at the average rate this week will be about $7,022, again assuming 10% down.
Most of the hottest markets identified by Realtor.com are mid-sized metros outside of large and expensive major cities, including Boston and New York.
Only one state outside of the East Coast managed to crack the top 20 markets: Wisconsin, which made the list with Kenosha, Racine and Oshkosh-Neenah.
If you’re moving out of one of these prime housing markets, getting a little extra for your home can help soften the blow of rising mortgage rates while you shop for your next home.
