Is the Magic Number for Retirement $1.2 Million or $1.46 Million?

The magic retirement number this year doesn’t have a single answer. Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 Planning and Progress Study is $1.46 million for the average American adult. Schroders US Retiree Study 2026limited to people participating in the workplace plan, it costs $1.2 million. Both come from real survey data collected in 2026. None of these describe your retirement.

Maybe you’ve already benchmarked your savings against one of these numbers and felt like you were lagging or ahead. It is a natural reaction to see a large round number nearby. The number you chose may not be correct for your situation and below is why.

The magic number for retirement has three different answers in 2026

This year, two major studies published new numbers, and they come from different places. Northwestern Mutual asked all US adults and received $1.46 million. Schroders asked people for a 401(k), 403(b) or 457 plan and received $1.2 million. Northwestern Mutual also singled out wealthy Americans, those with investable assets of $1 million or more, who estimated their number at $2.67 million.

Three issues, one year, three sections of one country. None of the three are wrong. Each of them measures a specific group of people by answering a version of a question that the others did not ask.

Why do two retirement age studies differ by $260,000?

Who is asked is more important than what is asked. Schroders surveyed people who are already contributing to a workplace plan, a group that by definition has some retirement savings and some structure around it. Northwestern Mutual surveyed the entire adult population, including people who have not yet started saving and retirees who are already living off their savings.

Ask the group that already keeps what they think they need and the number will be smaller. Open the question to everyone, and a range of circumstances pulls up the average. This difference in who responded explains most of the $260,000 difference between the two numbers.

The higher savings target didn’t close what Americans saved

Knowing the number didn’t get anyone closer to it. Only 30% of Schroders respondents believe they will save $1 million. The rest of the photo:

• 51% plan to retire with less than $500,000 in savings
• 24% expect less than $250,000
• Credit card debt exceeds retirement savings by 33%

Competitive costs partly explain this. 55% say they can’t save 10% of their paychecks because other expenses come first, and 69% believe rising health, housing, insurance and utility costs are making retirement unaffordable for their generation.

Even where there are savings, some of them are idle. About a quarter of pension assets are held in cash. Fear of a market downturn is keeping much of it there. For anyone more than five years from retirement, that amount of cash comes at a real cost: money doesn’t add up on the sidelines, and a solid savings rate can only do so much work if part of the portfolio sits in the parking lot for the next decade.

Why are rich Americans worth $2.67 million?

If reaching seven figures should bring peace of mind, the survey data suggests otherwise. Wealthy respondents to the Northwestern Mutual study who already own $1 million or more in investable assets called their magic number $2.67 million.

That $1.67 million difference highlights a quiet reality of personal finance: The finish line tends to move as wealth grows. Several pressures explain why even millionaires often feel like they haven’t arrived yet:

• The crawling lifestyle sets a higher base level: A higher salary usually comes with higher running costs. Replacing 70% to 80% of your retirement income is significantly more expensive for a family spending $180,000 a year than one spending $70,000.
• Protection against capital erosion: Wealthier savers tend to care less about covering day-to-day expenses and more about tax drag, long-term health shocks and inflation eroding a portfolio over a 30-year drawdown.
• The transition from accumulation to preservation: Going from making money to living off a limited pile of capital creates a real psychological hurdle. If the goal includes estate planning, supporting grown children, or financing big trips in early retirement, a million dollars quickly starts to look like a launching pad rather than a destination.

This is a clear sign that retirement worries aren’t solved by hitting a round number on a spreadsheet. Without an individualized spending plan, the goal is almost always stretched to fit the lifestyle you’re trying to protect.

How does the magic retirement number differ by generation?

The national figure hides real generational differences. A study by Northwestern Mutual in 2024, the latest year in which it was broken down by generation, found that each cohort names different goals and keeps different amounts saved for them.

The younger generation names the highest goals and saves the least for them. Gen Z’s number is $1.63 million versus just $22,800 saved. Boomers+ land on the opposite side, with the lowest goal of any generation, $990,000, supported by the most savings, $120,300, with the fewest years to close the gap.

These are generational averages, not individual responses. A single Gen Z saver or boomer retiree may sit outside of either column.

Your magic number for retirement is not a survey average

The national average is not seeing your Social Security due date or mortgage payment date. He doesn’t know what you plan to spend on travel in the first five years of retirement. It is built from millions of different households and collapses them into one figure. Bruce Lorenz, a Boldin Councilor and CFP® professional, put it this way in a conversation about the average 401(k) balance: Before anyone can answer the question “what’s my magic number,” they have to answer what they plan to spend.

Northwestern Mutual points to a few shortcuts to estimate this number:

• The 25x rule: multiply the expected annual costs by 25
• The 4% rule.: withdraw 4% of the portfolio in the first year and then adjust for inflation every year

Both compress many variables into a single factor. This makes them a starting point for back-of-napkin estimates rather than a blueprint.

The same separation of mean and median is found in Boldin’s own benchmark data. The average 401(k) balance by age was $167,970 in 2025, but the average value was only $44,115, as a small number of large accounts far exceeded the average value held by most depositors. The average IRA balance by age breaks down even more widely by account type: $225,413 for traditional IRAs vs. $57,450 for Roth, a gap driven largely by large 401(k) rollovers to traditional accounts. Average retirement savings by generation say the same for total savings, with workers ages 55 to 64 carrying an average of $185,000 versus the $537,560 average.

None of these benchmarks will replace a plan created from your own numbers. Workers with a pension plan are more than twice as likely to feel sure of retirement83% vs. 38% without one. The Boldin Planner models your spending, Social Security timing, and savings together so the resulting number is your retirement age instead of the national average.

Frequently asked questions about the retirement magic number