Mortgage Rates Today, Tuesday, July 21: Elevated, but Steady
Mortgage rates haven’t moved much today. July rates remained elevated from what we saw in June, moving above last month’s average (6.34%) for 19 days in a row.
The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.48% per year, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. That’s one basis point lower than yesterday and one basis point lower than a week ago. (See our table below for more details.) A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Mortgage rates are currently under pressure as investors react to the renewed conflict in Iran. The ongoing fighting has pushed up fuel prices and weakened the bond market, which in turn affects mortgage rates.
Average mortgage rate, last 30 days
🤓 Kate on prices: July 16, 2026
📈 What affects mortgage rates?
In the coming days, there are no more big economic reports, and the nerds are watching the most news about the war in Iran.
Crude oil prices rose 10% last week as renewed fighting in the region threatens to push up inflation again.
When oil prices rise, it becomes more expensive to produce and ship products, which can fuel inflation. When mortgage lenders suspect that the value of the dollar will weaken, they protect their investments by raising mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates reached their highest point since May last Wednesday, after the US continued its blockade of Iranian ports a day earlier.
Even with these concerns about new inflation, futures traders do not expect the Fed to raise the federal funds rate (which also typically raises mortgage rates) at its July meeting. However, the odds for a rate hike are currently over 50% for September, according to CME FedWatch.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to cover closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you might want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.98% or higher.
🏡 Should I start buying a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping – what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
Locking in rates protects you from increases while your loan is being processed, and with the market constantly bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerd reminder: Prices can change daily and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you’ve made, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the price I saw online different from the offer I received?
In addition to market factors beyond your control, your customized offer depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores they can get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe – but even personalized prices can be changed until you lock. This is because lenders adjust rates multiple times a day in response to market changes.
